Censorship, dissolution, divisions within the "common core"... François Bayrou increasingly threatened

The clamps are tightening around François Bayrou , the target of increasingly strong threats of censure by the Socialists and the National Rally, which could materialize during the heated budget debates this autumn.

"Everyone is threatening," admitted the Prime Minister on Sunday, June 29 , on RTL/PublicSénat/Figaro. He arrived at Matignon in December in a complicated political context, as he is deprived of a majority in the National Assembly.

But the failure of the pensions conclave , the launch of which had allowed François Bayrou to obtain the neutrality of the socialists on the budget, has worsened the situation since it deprived him of their support, the Socialist Party having decided to file a motion of censure against him.

Even though this motion has little chance of being adopted when it is examined on Tuesday, since the National Rally deputies will not vote for it , the risk increases for the autumn, these two parties have suggested.

Socialist Party First Secretary Olivier Faure warned on LCI that he would "no longer show any leniency" towards the Prime Minister and would take a very firm position during the 2026 budget discussion.

"We hope that François Bayrou will no longer be Prime Minister and that there will be real change, that we will find someone to talk to at Matignon," declared the leader of the Socialists.

Olivier Faure criticizes the government for not immediately referring the matter to Parliament after the failure of the pensions conference. He also accuses it of freezing funds that had been negotiated with the Socialists.

Unsurprisingly, his motion of censure will be supported by the rest of the left. Manuel Bompard, coordinator of La France Insoumise, stated on France Inter /France Info/Le Monde that the "urgent" task was "to bring down this government" as early as Tuesday.

"All the micro-concessions that the Socialist Party considered it had obtained (budget, repeal of the pension reform, etc.) have been swept aside in the last five months," he said.

The RN, for its part, is not only talking about censure, but is increasingly insistent about a new dissolution of the National Assembly.

"Dissolution is necessary as soon as possible," warned RN vice-president Sébastien Chenu on Europe1 /CNews/LesEchos. "The government's turn to be censored will come," and "probably sooner than you think," he said.

Marine Le Pen herself called on her troops this Saturday to prepare for new legislative elections , judging it "possible" that President Emmanuel Macron will be forced to do so by the political situation. One year after the early election in 2024, he will regain the power to dissolve the Assembly on July 8.

On a tightrope, François Bayrou remains hopeful of the goodwill of a section of the left. He reiterated that the government would "take into account," in the draft social security budget, the points of consensus from the conclave on pensions, particularly in favor of women.

François Bayrou is seeking a path forward on pensions while preparing a major plan to restore public finances, which he plans to present between July 15 and 17.

In addition to this mounting pressure on censure, the head of government is weakened by divisions within his own party within the "common core." He acknowledged in this regard that his supporters in the central bloc and the right were divided over his plan to introduce proportional voting in legislative elections, which he now intends to submit to Parliament at the end of the year, rather than at the end of the summer.

The president of the Republicans, Bruno Retailleau , who is also Minister of the Interior and therefore in charge of organizing the elections, had said that he would refuse to "carry out" such a reform.

He reiterated this Sunday on BFMTV that proportional representation would make the "mess" in the National Assembly "structural" and noted that it "could only pass with the votes of the National Rally and the left and the far left."

Faced with accusations of inaction, including within the central bloc - "I didn't become Prime Minister by twiddling my thumbs," said Edouard Philippe, the head of Horizons on RTL, recently - François Bayrou defended his daily work, from 7:30 a.m. to midnight, and considered that in this regard he was the subject of "accusations intended to harm."